Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.013415 0.015175 0.017080 0.019296 0.021803 0.024553 0.027798
2025-10-19 0.010837 0.013302 0.016195 0.019843 0.024324 0.029654 0.036485
2025-10-26 0.009132 0.011853 0.015228 0.019726 0.025573 0.032928 0.042902
2025-11-02 0.007976 0.010837 0.014550 0.019729 0.026781 0.036067 0.049263
2025-11-09 0.006965 0.009845 0.013732 0.019372 0.027365 0.038320 0.054530
2025-11-16 0.006344 0.009290 0.013410 0.019603 0.028702 0.041626 0.061463
2025-11-23 0.005716 0.008646 0.012876 0.019441 0.029411 0.044043 0.067262
2025-11-30 0.005353 0.008342 0.012789 0.019902 0.031039 0.047889 0.075475
2025-12-07 0.004779 0.007658 0.012059 0.019298 0.030959 0.049109 0.079693
2025-12-14 0.004351 0.007157 0.011561 0.018995 0.031299 0.050965 0.085024
2025-12-21 0.003927 0.006621 0.010953 0.018453 0.031182 0.052050 0.089137
2025-12-28 0.003781 0.006529 0.011055 0.019079 0.033039 0.056491 0.099231
2026-01-04 0.003596 0.006360 0.011022 0.019487 0.034582 0.060570 0.109139
2026-01-11 0.003439 0.006226 0.011036 0.019978 0.036312 0.065113 0.120280
2026-01-18 0.003200 0.005924 0.010729 0.019864 0.036935 0.067734 0.128127
2026-01-25 0.003003 0.005678 0.010500 0.019866 0.037764 0.070771 0.136982
2026-02-01 0.002773 0.005352 0.010097 0.019507 0.037873 0.072471 0.143406
2026-02-08 0.002642 0.005204 0.010011 0.019739 0.039127 0.076416 0.154523
2026-02-15 0.002473 0.004966 0.009735 0.019576 0.039587 0.078854 0.162818
2026-02-22 0.002392 0.004895 0.009774 0.020040 0.041331 0.083942 0.176933
2026-03-01 0.002197 0.004578 0.009304 0.019432 0.040834 0.084480 0.181595
2026-03-08 0.002051 0.004350 0.008995 0.019127 0.040938 0.086244 0.188983
2026-03-15 0.001893 0.004084 0.008587 0.018581 0.040481 0.086792 0.193767